★Then and now: Comparing where the S&P 500, crude and other markets are to the pre-war situation

The recent US-Iran ceasefire provides a crucial benchmark for global markets, allowing us to assess how much the landscape has truly shifted since the initial tensions. What's interesting here is not just the immediate relief rally in crude oil or the S&P 500, but how deeply the underlying geopolitical risk premium has been embedded across various asset classes, from energy futures to defense stocks. The real question is whether this de-escalation signals a genuine return to pre-conflict stability or merely a temporary pause, as the structural supply-demand dynamics for oil, for instance, remain heavily influenced by global growth prospects and OPEC+ decisions. Investors should keep a close eye on how quickly this perceived reduction in geopolitical risk translates into sustained shifts in inflation expectations and central bank policy, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The bottom line is that while the immediate crisis may be averted, the long-term implications for energy security and global trade routes are far from settled.