★Moody’s says a recession will be hard to avoid if oil prices stay elevated for even a few more weeks

"Sustained energy price shocks from geopolitical chokepoint disruptions fundamentally alter inflation trajectories and force hawkish central bank pivots, repricing risk assets across the curve. This scenario triggers defensive capital reallocation towards commodities and away from growth-sensitive equities, while stressing corporate margins and consumer discretionary spending. Such persistent supply-side pressures could accelerate a global credit cycle downturn, impacting sovereign and corporate debt valuations."